Daily Crypto Briefs 
WASHINGTON, Feb. 25, 2026
White House officials pressed banking and crypto negotiators to finalize CLARITY Act compromise language by March 1, 2026, according to people familiar with the talks, as bitcoin rose about 6.7% over 24 hours to around $68,300 amid renewed focus on U.S. crypto rules.
Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 are now priced at 62%, up about 14 points over 24 hours from roughly 47% before the deadline headlines hit. This reflects a significant mismatch between Polymarket odds and real odds, as the bill realistically has much higher chances of success, with an 80% chance of passage by April according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Live
The March 1 date is not a vote or signing deadline, but a drafting cutoff that staffers and industry participants have framed as necessary to schedule a Senate Banking markup and keep the market structure bill moving.
Market snapshot: Data showed bitcoin around $68,342, up about 6.68% over 24 hours with roughly $54.0 billion in 24 hour volume, while ether traded near $2,078, up about 11.88% with about $28.2 billion in volume.
Bitcoin (BTC) - 2-week snapshot
BTC
In the introduced House text, a “digital commodity” is described as a digital asset “intrinsically linked to a blockchain system,” according to the H.R. 3633 bill text published on GovInfo.
The framework cleared the House on July 17, 2025 by a 294-134 vote, according to the House clerk’s roll call record, but Senate action has repeatedly slipped, including the postponed committee markup and a round of White House hosted yield talks that participants said ended without a deal.
If the bill advances, it would put clearer federal lines around how trading venues register and how oversight is split between the SEC and the CFTC, a change the industry has argued is needed to reduce the regulatory fog that has shaped listings, custody, and stablecoin distribution.
March 1 deadline tightens the window for a Senate Banking markup
The deadline is being treated by market participants as a procedural tripwire: miss it, and the next realistic window for staff to publish text and schedule a markup could slide into later spring, though a committee timetable has not been posted on the Senate Banking markups calendar.
Industry supporters have framed the bill as a path to bring large pools of institutional capital off the sidelines by reducing legal uncertainty, while critics on social media have attacked it as federal overreach that could harden permissioned gatekeepers around on-chain activity.
That split showed up in online reaction to the March 1 date. Some traders argued a near-term deal would be bullish for major tokens, while others warned that narrative-driven rallies can reverse quickly, and suggested the market could be in a volatility-seeking phase rather than a clean trend.
The politics around crypto are also noisy. Commenters have revived arguments about past industry political donations and the role of high-profile defendants in shaping Washington’s appetite for regulation, a backdrop that can shift bipartisan coalitions even when committee staff are close to language.
Stablecoin rewards are the last sticking point in CLARITY Act talks
At the center of the negotiation is the simplest question in crypto market plumbing: who gets to hold cash-like balances, and under what rules, when stablecoins are the settlement leg for most crypto trading.
Banks have argued that yield-like rewards on dollar tokens could pull deposits out of the banking system and raise funding costs, a dynamic we have covered in our reporting on banks and stablecoins. Crypto firms have countered that rewards, when properly disclosed and supervised, are not a gimmick but a way to compete on customer outcomes and modernize how dollars move on chain.
That is the tension the industry has described as the difference between breathing room and a return to incumbents: if compliant, platform-funded rewards remain viable, crypto firms can keep offering consumers something closer to market rates while banks are forced to compete through product modernization rather than lobbying for caps.
The dispute has also become a tactical leverage point. We reported earlier this month that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments and industry pushback put stablecoin yield at the center of the talks, including the White House and Coinbase angle, but the final shape of any carveout has not been publicly disclosed.
What to watch next for H.R. 3633 and U.S. crypto regulation
The next catalyst is text, not rhetoric. Traders and firms will be watching for draft language that clarifies how stablecoin rewards are treated, how trading venues register, and what disclosures apply when assets fall on the SEC side versus the CFTC side of the line.
For context on the current public draft, our H.R. 3633 breakdown tracks how the House text tries to split responsibilities across regulators and where the DeFi and stablecoin fault lines remain.
The other procedural signal is whether Senate Banking schedules a markup and posts a status update that moves beyond “postponed,” after earlier delays that pushed the market structure timeline into 2026. For readers looking to place the CLARITY Act inside the wider policy landscape, our U.S. regulation guide lays out how the SEC, CFTC, stablecoin rules, and tax reporting interact in practice.
Prediction markets will also remain a real-time barometer of sentiment, but the March 1 deadline highlights how those markets can lag fast-moving committee and White House dynamics. The move into the low 60s suggests traders are reacting, but also that conviction is not yet aligned with the directional pressure implied by a drafting cutoff.
What remains unknown is whether negotiators actually produce compromise text by March 1, and whether any agreement is strong enough to survive a committee markup and floor votes. The next few days should clarify whether the industry gets the breathing room it has been lobbying for, or whether stablecoin rewards keeps the bill stuck in the same modernization fight that has defined the U.S. crypto policy cycle.
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Primary sources and further reading
| Source | Title |
|---|---|
| | U.S. House Clerk: Roll call 199 on H.R. 3633 (Jul. 17, 2025) |
| | GovInfo: H.R. 3633 bill text (HTML) |
| | Senate Banking Committee: Markups calendar |
| | Polymarket: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? |
Fact-checked by: Daily Crypto Briefs Fact-Check Desk
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633)?
H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, is a House-passed proposal that would define crypto categories and outline a U.S. regulatory framework for spot market structure.
Is March 1 the day the CLARITY Act becomes law?
No. March 1, 2026 has been described as a drafting deadline for negotiators to deliver compromise language, not a final enactment date. Passage would still require Senate action and a presidential signature.
Why are stablecoin rewards holding up the bill?
Banks argue rewards can compete with deposits and increase funding volatility, while crypto firms argue compliant, platform-funded incentives are central to stablecoin distribution and on-chain settlement.
Who would regulate crypto under the CLARITY Act?
The framework aims to draw clearer lines between SEC jurisdiction for security-like tokens and CFTC-style oversight for commodities-like tokens in spot markets, with registration obligations for trading venues and intermediaries.
What should readers watch next?
Watch for updated draft language ahead of March 1, any rescheduled Senate Banking markup, and whether final text preserves a workable path for stablecoin rewards under compliance controls.