WASHINGTON, April 18, 2026
Banks are escalating a desperate last-minute campaign to strip more stablecoin yield out of the CLARITY Act, while Polymarket’s official market still showed only a 54% chance on April 18, 2026 that the bill will be signed into law this year.
Will the CLARITY Act be signed into law in 2026? Live
The latest pressure campaign centers on Sen. Thom Tillis, whose office has become a choke point in the stablecoin-yield fight. According to a report from journalist Eleanor Terrett, the North Carolina Bankers Association has been urging member banks to call Tillis’s office with a prewritten script arguing that the current compromise still fails to solve deposit flight into stablecoins and should include an airtight ban on interest or yield-like payments tied to payment stablecoins.
The banking lobby’s public case is already on the record. In an October statement, North Carolina bankers and the American Bankers Association said stablecoin reward programs could draw deposits away from banks, and NCBA President Peter Gwaltney argued that “the issue is simple” because deposit migration would reduce Main Street lending capacity.
Banks pressure Tillis on stablecoin yield
Terrett reported that employees were allegedly told they did not need to debate the policy merits, only deliver the message and end the call. Daily Crypto Briefs could not independently review that script, but the claim tracks with the association’s more formal November push to close what it called a stablecoin interest-payments loophole.
That also shows how defensive the banking campaign has become. Instead of arguing that crypto has no real use case, banks are fighting over whether users should be allowed to keep cash-like balances on blockchain rails and still receive some of the reserve economics back. It is the same competitive tension we laid out in our earlier report on how banks want your stablecoins.
The timing matters because the market had started to assume the hardest part of the negotiation was already behind Washington. We covered that shift in our stories on the stablecoin compromise text and on why the bill’s main blocker appeared resolved before markup. A renewed employee-call campaign suggests the deposit-flight fight is not actually closed, even if the legislative text is much closer.
CLARITY Act odds of passing stay stuck near 54%
Polymarket’s 54% reading is important precisely because it is not dramatic. If traders believed the bank campaign had succeeded, the contract likely would not still be near even odds. If they believed the Senate path was fully secure, it would likely be much higher. The market instead keeps signaling a muddled middle: progress, but not clarity.
Our prior coverage noted Patrick Witt’s warning that the window could close without a deal in the March risk piece, then tracked the backlash against Coinbase in our article on sabotage accusations. Supporters later pointed to the House win and Senate setup as proof the package was nearly there. What the banks are showing now is that an issue can be technically narrowed and still remain politically explosive.
There is also a broader Washington risk premium here. Any final package that looks like it protects incumbents while leaving room for insider-friendly carveouts will be judged in a climate already shaped by questions around Trump’s crypto monetization, which we examined in our report on how Trump extracted more than $1 billion from crypto. That overhang helps explain why mid-50s odds still read as uncertainty rather than comfort.
Banks are fighting stablecoin adoption, not just a loophole
The substantive dispute is no longer whether stablecoins are real. Banks are reacting this aggressively because stablecoins already behave like a superior internet-native cash wrapper for many users. The argument in Washington is over who captures distribution, customer balances, and the spread from reserves as adoption grows.
Banks are trying to make sure the most bank-like and scalable crypto product cannot become meaningfully better than a bank deposit for ordinary users. In practical terms, that means crypto may not need politicians to prove demand so much as politicians and banks trying to catch up with demand that already exists.
Risk appetite still looks cautious, not euphoric. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 26 on April 18, a reading labeled Fear, even with bitcoin holding well above levels seen earlier this month.
Fear & Greed Index
The immediate unknown is whether Tillis and Senate Banking staff accept more restrictive language or hold the line on the current compromise. Also unclear is whether the latest employee-call push represents a final lobbying burst or the start of a broader pressure campaign by state banking groups. Either way, the banks’ posture is telling: crypto adoption has advanced far enough that incumbents are now sounding less like referees and more like threatened competitors.
Stay up to date
Get the latest crypto insights delivered to your inbox
Primary sources and further reading
| Source | Title |
|---|---|
| | Polymarket: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? |
| | GovInfo: H.R. 3633 bill text |
| | North Carolina Bankers Association: Stablecoin reward loopholes |
| | North Carolina Bankers Association: Stablecoin interest payments loophole |
Fact-checked by: Daily Crypto Briefs Fact-Check Desk
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are banks fighting stablecoin yield in the CLARITY Act?
Bank groups argue that rewards or yield on payment stablecoins could pull deposits out of regulated banks and into crypto platforms, raising funding pressure for lenders.
What does 54% on Polymarket mean for the CLARITY Act?
It means prediction-market traders still see the bill as uncertain. A mid-50s probability is closer to a contested outcome than a legislative done deal.
Why is Sen. Thom Tillis central to the stablecoin-yield fight?
Tillis has been one of the key senators involved in the late-stage negotiation over how stablecoin rewards should be handled, making his office a focal point for both bank and crypto lobbying.
What should readers watch next on the CLARITY Act?
Watch for public legislative text, any Senate Banking markup notice, and whether lawmakers keep the current compromise or tighten it further under bank pressure.