Gemini Revenue Rises 37% as Exchange Trading Falls 38%

Gemini Q2 Revenue Growth Came From Cards and Staking

Gemini’s transaction revenue fell 15% year over year to $17.8 million. The most visible weakness was exchange revenue, which fell to $12.5 million from $20.2 million as trading volume declined from $11.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.

Not every trading business moved in the same direction. Over-the-counter revenue increased to $4.7 million from $0.6 million, which Gemini attributed to higher institutional activity, several large trades and growth of its electronic OTC platform. Prediction markets produced $0.5 million in revenue, a new but still small piece of the mix.

Services revenue was $23.5 million, compared with $9.5 million a year earlier. Credit-card revenue rose 231% to $16.2 million and staking revenue increased 50% to $4 million. Advisory fees contributed $2.7 million under an agreement entered in 2025, while custodial fees fell to $0.6 million from $1.9 million amid lower asset prices and institutional custody outflows.

This is a different model from simply winning more spot volume. Gemini’s services expansion mirrors the wider industry push to turn a crypto account into a multi-product financial relationship, including the USDC-backed secured-card path Coinbase has described. It also makes customer-credit performance more relevant to an exchange’s earnings.

Gemini Credit-Card Fraud Provision Reaches $16.1 Million

Transaction losses rose to $20.1 million from $3.6 million a year earlier, primarily because of the $16.1 million provision for expected credit losses connected to an identity-fraud event Gemini identified earlier in 2026. The company had initially recorded a $4.1 million discrete reserve in the first quarter.

Gemini said its investigation later identified additional fraud patterns and affected accounts from the same first-quarter origination cohort as those accounts moved into later delinquency categories. Managed credit-card receivables reached $219.6 million at quarter end, up from $93.5 million a year earlier.

The company said it believes the elevated provision is concentrated in the identified cohort and does not reflect broad deterioration across the portfolio. It also said it added fraud detection and account-monitoring measures during the quarter. The Form 10-Q gives the fuller accounting context, but it does not disclose the number of cardholders or affected accounts.

Gemini’s total operating expenses rose 24% year over year to $122.4 million, partly from IPO-related stock compensation and card costs. They fell from $144.5 million in the first quarter after restructuring costs, stock compensation and other expenses declined. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $74 million, compared with negative $51.9 million a year earlier, primarily citing losses on bitcoin it received in its May private placement as Bitcoin’s price declined.

Gemini Derivatives Clearinghouse and Predictions Set Next Test

Gemini’s earnings release says its derivatives clearinghouse went live Aug. 4 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved it as a derivatives clearing organization in April. The company says this lets it settle its own prediction contracts and could support future U.S. crypto futures, options and perpetual contracts, subject to further work and approvals.

Gemini Predictions set a monthly volume record in every month of the second quarter, the company said. Event contracts traded rose 93% from the first quarter and cumulative contracts since the December 2025 launch passed 225 million. Gemini also said it tripled its contracted market makers and expanded its market-making infrastructure.

Those developments position Gemini within a crowded event-contract market, where Blockchain.com has announced plans to embed Polymarket access. Gemini’s revenue number is clearer than its longer-term share: $0.5 million in Q2 is meaningful as a new segment, but too small on its own to offset a sustained trading slowdown.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29, or Fear, on Aug. 14. The Bitcoin-focused measure does not rate Gemini’s credit portfolio or prediction products, but it captures the cautious backdrop that management cited in discussing exchange activity.

Gemini has not disclosed July exchange revenue, the dollar contribution from individual prediction-market categories, or how many accounts were included in the fraud-related card cohort. Its next filing and any launch details for new derivatives products should show whether the newer revenue streams can keep growing while the core crypto trading market remains softer.